Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-28 0.096384 0.109440 0.123587 0.140053 0.158691 0.179132 0.203252
2026-01-04 0.074978 0.091700 0.111170 0.135507 0.165113 0.199966 0.244128
2026-01-11 0.060684 0.079454 0.102797 0.133945 0.174421 0.225254 0.293991
2026-01-18 0.050384 0.070362 0.096804 0.134334 0.186233 0.255504 0.355086
2026-01-25 0.039904 0.059268 0.086466 0.127411 0.187490 0.272462 0.401935
2026-02-01 0.031484 0.049598 0.076525 0.119404 0.185979 0.285475 0.445711
2026-02-08 0.025698 0.042820 0.069687 0.114821 0.188763 0.305212 0.502873
2026-02-15 0.021042 0.036996 0.063353 0.109953 0.190309 0.323330 0.560710
2026-02-22 0.018374 0.033996 0.061101 0.111404 0.202460 0.360487 0.656179
2026-03-01 0.015342 0.029814 0.056134 0.107310 0.204370 0.380623 0.725746
2026-03-08 0.013012 0.026502 0.052168 0.104345 0.207809 0.403992 0.805155
2026-03-15 0.011141 0.023737 0.048760 0.101847 0.211699 0.428784 0.891461
2026-03-22 0.009981 0.022252 0.047710 0.104091 0.225863 0.476694 1.033982
2026-03-29 0.008684 0.020239 0.045248 0.103003 0.233055 0.511983 1.157278
2026-04-05 0.007716 0.018769 0.043695 0.103633 0.244152 0.557502 1.311275
2026-04-12 0.006958 0.017642 0.042708 0.105391 0.258175 0.611930 1.495545
2026-04-19 0.005928 0.015656 0.039385 0.101046 0.257186 0.632280 1.604390
2026-04-26 0.004994 0.013724 0.035839 0.095499 0.252290 0.642683 1.691370
2026-05-03 0.004326 0.012353 0.033448 0.092447 0.253159 0.667383 1.819207
2026-05-10 0.003737 0.011078 0.031071 0.088990 0.252356 0.687796 1.939960
2026-05-17 0.003427 0.010533 0.030554 0.090542 0.265480 0.746973 2.176719
2026-05-24 0.002990 0.009519 0.028549 0.087494 0.265143 0.769818 2.316569
2026-05-31 0.002638 0.008695 0.026936 0.085290 0.266869 0.798794 2.479857